Feinberg Forecast: The Post-Shortlists Oscars Landscape

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

* * *

*BEST PICTURE*

Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
The Fabelmans (Universal) — podcast (Steven Spielberg)
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century/Disney)
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) — podcast (Jerry Bruckheimer)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Tár (Focus)
Babylon (Paramount)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)

Major Threats
Women Talking (UAR)
The Woman King (Sony)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)
RRR (Variance)
She Said (Universal)

Possibilities
Till (UAR) — podcast (Barbara Broccoli)
Thirteen Lives (Amazon) — podcast (Ron Howard)
Living (Sony Classics)
A Man Called Otto (Sony) — podcast 1 and 2 (Tom Hanks)
The Whale (A24)
Nope (Universal) — podcast (Jordan Peele)

*BEST DIRECTOR*

Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)

Major Threats
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
S. S. Rajamouli (R.R.R.)
Todd Field (Tár)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Possibilities
Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives) — podcast
Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
Chinonye Chukwu (Till)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Rian Johnson (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

*BEST ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Major Threats
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) — podcast 1 and 2
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Adam Sandler (Hustle) — podcast
Diego Calva (Babylon)

Possibilities
Hugh Jackman (The Son) — podcast
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Will Smith (Emancipation) — podcast
Song Kang-ho (Broker)

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

Major Threats
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) — podcast
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)

Possibilities
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) — podcast
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu) — podcast
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Emma Corrin (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)
Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*

Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

Major Threats
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Tom Hanks (Elvis) — podcast 1 and 2
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Possibilities
Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time) — podcast
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) — podcast

*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

Frontrunners
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) — podcast

Major Threats
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Claire Foy (Women Talking) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Keke Palmer (Nope)

Possibilities
Carey Mulligan (She Said) — podcast
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)
Laura Dern (The Son)

*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)

Major Threats
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
The Wonder (Alice Birch & Sebastián Lelio)

Possibilities
The Son (Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller)
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver)
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)

*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*

Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Tár (Todd Field)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

Major Threats
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — podcast
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Armageddon Time (James Gray) — podcast
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)

Possibilities
Nope (Jordan Peele) — podcast
Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeong)
The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
R.R.R. (S. S. Rajamouli)

*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*

Frontrunners
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Close (Belgium)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Corsage (Austria)

Major Threats
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Saint Omer (France)
Bardo (Mexico) — podcast (Alejandro González Iñárritu)

Possibilities
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Last Film Show (India)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*

Frontrunners
All That Breathes (HBO)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Last Flight Home (MTV)

Major Threats
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
Bad Axe (IFC)
Descendant (Netflix)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)

Possibilities
The Janes (HBO)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Classics)
Hidden Letters (Cargo)
Children of the Mist (CAT&Docs)
A House Made of Splinters (still seeking U.S. distribution)

*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*

Frontrunners
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (A24)
Turning Red (Pixar)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks)
Wendell & Wild (Netflix)

Major Contenders
Inu-Oh (GKIDS)
Strange World (Disney)
Apollo 10 1/2 (Netflix)
The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century)
The Bad Guys (Universal)

Possibilities
Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal/Illumination)
Eternal Spring (ARTE)
Luck (Apple/Skydance)
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
The Sea Beast (Netflix)

*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING*

Frontrunners
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Elvis
The Whale

Major Threats
Crimes of the Future
Babylon
Blonde

Possibilities
Emancipation
Amsterdam

*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*

Frontrunners
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Simon Franglen)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)

Major Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Göransson)
The Woman King (Terence Blanchard)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
She Said (Nicholas Britell)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)

Possibilities
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Nathan Johnson)
Devotion (Chanda Dancy)
Don’t Worry Darling (John Powell)
Nope (Michael Abels)

*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*

Frontrunners
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Bloodpop, Lady Gaga & Benjamin Rice — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — Kala Bhairava, M. M. Keeravani & Rahul Sipligunj
“Stand Up” (Till) — D’Mile & Jazmine Sullivan
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro & Roeban Katz — podcast (del Toro)

Major Threats
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” (Avatar: The Way of Water) — Simon Franglen, Swedish House Mafia & Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott & Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton & Jahaan Akil Sweet

Possibilities
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren — podcast
“My Mind and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Selena Gomez — podcast
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph — podcast
“Til You’re Home” (A Man Called Otto) — David Hodges and Rita Wilson

*BEST SOUND*

Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Babylon

Major Threats
All Quiet on the Western Front
Moonage Daydream
The Batman

Possibilities
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*

Frontrunners
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
The Batman
Top Gun: Maverick

Major Threats
All Quiet on the Western Front
Jurassic World Dominion
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Possibilities
Thirteen Lives
Nope

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